New Seat Details - High Peak

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for High Peak been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	26,752	49.7%
CON	24,431	45.4%
LIB	2,672	5.0%
LAB Majority	2,321	4.3%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

High Peak: Map

List of old seats forming part of High Peak

Old seat: High Peak

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of High Peak, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: High Peak				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
High Peak	Barms	1,380	High Peak	456	625	33	0	0	0	0	0	1,114
High Peak	Blackbrook	3,127	High Peak	1,256	941	202	0	0	0	0	0	2,399
High Peak	Burbage	1,594	High Peak	691	496	44	0	0	0	0	0	1,231
High Peak	Buxton Central	2,949	High Peak	1,019	1,371	91	0	0	0	0	0	2,481
High Peak	Chapel East	1,744	High Peak	701	579	79	0	0	0	0	0	1,359
High Peak	Chapel West	3,472	High Peak	1,220	1,047	125	0	0	0	0	0	2,392
High Peak	Corbar	3,203	High Peak	1,237	964	81	0	0	0	0	0	2,282
High Peak	Cote Heath	3,181	High Peak	1,151	1,120	68	0	0	0	0	0	2,339
High Peak	Dinting	1,644	High Peak	694	441	39	0	0	0	0	0	1,174
High Peak	Gamesley	1,674	High Peak	378	1,097	26	0	0	0	0	0	1,501
High Peak	Hadfield North	1,736	High Peak	493	789	36	0	0	0	0	0	1,318
High Peak	Hadfield South	3,399	High Peak	1,161	1,422	86	0	0	0	0	0	2,669
High Peak	Hayfield	1,625	High Peak	618	493	106	0	0	0	0	0	1,217
High Peak	Hope Valley	3,183	High Peak	1,397	813	73	0	0	0	0	0	2,283
High Peak	Howard Town	3,408	High Peak	783	1,706	98	0	0	0	0	0	2,587
High Peak	Limestone Peak	1,675	High Peak	723	559	38	0	0	0	0	0	1,320
High Peak	New Mills East	3,034	High Peak	736	1,457	174	0	0	0	0	0	2,367
High Peak	New Mills West	3,415	High Peak	1,070	1,155	257	0	0	0	0	0	2,482
High Peak	Old Glossop	3,689	High Peak	1,374	1,245	86	0	0	0	0	0	2,705
High Peak	Padfield	1,814	High Peak	625	747	44	0	0	0	0	0	1,416
High Peak	Sett	1,654	High Peak	601	489	75	0	0	0	0	0	1,165
High Peak	Simmondley	3,500	High Peak	1,365	1,088	181	0	0	0	0	0	2,634
High Peak	St John's	1,488	High Peak	624	385	73	0	0	0	0	0	1,082
High Peak	Stone Bench	3,157	High Peak	768	1,887	78	0	0	0	0	0	2,733
High Peak	Temple	1,801	High Peak	731	481	39	0	0	0	0	0	1,251
High Peak	Tintwistle	1,627	High Peak	459	708	34	0	0	0	0	0	1,201
High Peak	Whaley Bridge	5,217	High Peak	1,634	1,820	365	0	0	0	0	0	3,819
High Peak	Whitfield	1,740	High Peak	466	827	41	0	0	0	0	0	1,334
	Total	71,130		24,431	26,752	2,672	0	0	0	0	0	53,855

The full details of these calculations are given on the High Peak seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: High Peak

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: High Peak
High Peak	Barms	1,516	High Peak	456	625	33	0	0	0	0	0	1,114
High Peak	Blackbrook	3,264	High Peak	1,256	941	202	0	0	0	0	0	2,399
High Peak	Burbage	1,674	High Peak	691	496	44	0	0	0	0	0	1,231
High Peak	Buxton Central	3,375	High Peak	1,019	1,371	91	0	0	0	0	0	2,481
High Peak	Chapel East	1,847	High Peak	701	579	79	0	0	0	0	0	1,359
High Peak	Chapel West	3,253	High Peak	1,220	1,047	125	0	0	0	0	0	2,392
High Peak	Corbar	3,104	High Peak	1,237	964	81	0	0	0	0	0	2,282
High Peak	Cote Heath	3,182	High Peak	1,151	1,120	68	0	0	0	0	0	2,339
High Peak	Dinting	1,597	High Peak	694	441	39	0	0	0	0	0	1,174
High Peak	Gamesley	2,041	High Peak	378	1,097	26	0	0	0	0	0	1,501
High Peak	Hadfield North	1,794	High Peak	493	789	36	0	0	0	0	0	1,318
High Peak	Hadfield South	3,630	High Peak	1,161	1,422	86	0	0	0	0	0	2,669
High Peak	Hayfield	1,655	High Peak	618	493	106	0	0	0	0	0	1,217
High Peak	Hope Valley	3,106	High Peak	1,397	813	73	0	0	0	0	0	2,283
High Peak	Howard Town	3,519	High Peak	783	1,706	98	0	0	0	0	0	2,587
High Peak	Limestone Peak	1,796	High Peak	723	559	38	0	0	0	0	0	1,320
High Peak	New Mills East	3,220	High Peak	736	1,457	174	0	0	0	0	0	2,367
High Peak	New Mills West	3,376	High Peak	1,070	1,155	257	0	0	0	0	0	2,482
High Peak	Old Glossop	3,680	High Peak	1,374	1,245	86	0	0	0	0	0	2,705
High Peak	Padfield	1,926	High Peak	625	747	44	0	0	0	0	0	1,416
High Peak	Sett	1,584	High Peak	601	489	75	0	0	0	0	0	1,165
High Peak	Simmondley	3,582	High Peak	1,365	1,088	181	0	0	0	0	0	2,634
High Peak	St John's	1,473	High Peak	624	385	73	0	0	0	0	0	1,082
High Peak	Stone Bench	3,718	High Peak	768	1,887	78	0	0	0	0	0	2,733
High Peak	Temple	1,700	High Peak	731	481	39	0	0	0	0	0	1,251
High Peak	Tintwistle	1,633	High Peak	459	708	34	0	0	0	0	0	1,201
High Peak	Whaley Bridge	5,193	High Peak	1,634	1,820	365	0	0	0	0	0	3,819
High Peak	Whitfield	1,813	High Peak	466	827	41	0	0	0	0	0	1,334
	Total	73,251		24,431	26,752	2,672	0	0	0	0	0	53,855

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of High Peak. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Ruth George (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	73,251
Turnout:	73.5%

High Peak: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

High Peak: Overview

Introduction

Calculation method

High Peak: Map

List of old seats forming part of High Peak

Old seat: High Peak

New seat: High Peak